Jan 18 2007 - Risk

You can see, if you are a regular reader of this blog(which is very very very unlikely) that I have reused some earlier material!


OPM*
Presents – Risky Business


Wikipedia informs me that Risk is a concept that denotes a potential negative impact to an asset that may arise from some present or future event. In everyday usage, "risk" is often used synonymously with the probability of a loss. For example, the risk of rain versus how badly your suede shoes will stain.
Further risk could include, rain not affecting your suede shoes versus realization that your shoes are made of fake suede.

i.e. Risk = (probability of an event) x (losses per event)

Now these terribly technical terms will need some explanation.

An event is something that happens. This usually requires movement of some kind, which explains why many people opine that this lazy author is ‘not happening’.

Probability is much more confusing and is directly linked to Heisenberg's uncertainity principle, which postulates that Uncertainity cannot be accurately forecast.
Heisenberg was himself quite uncertain of the whole thing but he couldn't blame himself, as he had already proved that uncertainity was not predictable, unless it was. But one could never tell, for sure.
The ideas behind Probability and uncertainty, struck Heisenberg as he finished cooking an elegant meal for himself. This thought, though, enabled him to create prize winning science papers, while most of us tend to add salt when struck by the very same thought, " Something's missing “.

To put it simply, Probability and Risk are like Bollywood scripts. There is no telling where they could head. To understand the true poignance of this statement please watch Hindi movies where joyously happy families/mothers/elder siblings/fathers/benevolent maids etc realize that they have lost one or more little children at the Kumbh Mela (which, incidentally, was invented by Rajshree Productions as a film setting for losing kids/parents/lovers etc. The Kumbh Mela as such has no historical relevance and was initially created as a film set in the 1930's before it grew into popular legend and culture as a place where pious people performed rituals in the water and young voyeurous lechers checked out the women. It’s a good thing though and everyone goes home satisfied)

Our story starts as the lens moves through a dolly shot (based on the book; Ending Cloning, the day Dolly the sheep was Shot) of a garden in disrepair.

There are trees slouching to protect their space and plants doing badly in a corner as the camera pans to a close-up of our hero who is trembling, clutching a gun.

Run-deep is a Risk Analyst with a leading portfolio management firm.
But herein lies the twist. The Portfolio Management firm exclusively does business for terrorists, warlords, mafia, lawyers and the BCCI. Their market analysts have roam around with guns, to protect themselves from irate clients.

As the story progresses we begin to realize that the story arc is an uncompromising and honest look at an improbable world and shows the same commitment to realism and starkness as a Justice League or Swat Cat cartoon.



It turns out that Run-deep has run himself into deep trouble with a set of clients headed by Osama Bush (President of the international court of lenience for troublemakers) by investing in bad business ideas like the ten rupee diamond, Team India and the Bachchan-Rai engagement. To make things worse Run-deep is a paranoid literalist who mistakes Bull and Bear markets to be gladiatorial battlefields where market analysts fight fierce animals. This makes him very touchy and trigger-happy, especially around animals. PETA is hounding him for shooting at several squirrels, poisonous snakes, vicious dogs and Salman Kahn.


His bugbear, Osama Bush (played by Vinod Khanna) wears a beard to hide the pallor that affects people who have lived their lives manipulating and deceiving people over monstrously flawed ideas like God, Political honesty and nationalism.
As Run-deep has invested his dishonestly earned money in such risky assets, he is baying for his blood.
He kidnaps Run-deep’s girlfriend, Tanushree who is a dancer at a bar called Risque.

Will Run-deep take grave risks to save his girlfriend? Does Osama Bush risk the grave in Iraq and Afghanistan? Will you risk reading next weeks OPM?
Anyway, do remember what this movie preaches – Life mein Risk lena padta hai, which means - don't worry about the risk of rain in Pondicherry or wherever else you are going, but do pack an umbrella.


* Objects in the Preview Mirror may appear sillier than they are.
Disclaimer: Characters in the above story are not based on any characters in the film. Any resemblance or humour is pure luck.
**OPM appears in the Thursday edition of Bangalore BIAS and previews a Friday release